Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/108645 
Year of Publication: 
2014
Series/Report no.: 
Working Paper No. 1404
Publisher: 
Koç University-TÜSİAD Economic Research Forum (ERF), Istanbul
Abstract: 
This paper measures flow rates into and out of unemployment for Turkey and uses these rates to estimate the unemployment rate trend, that is the level of the unemployment rate the economy converges to in the long-run. In doing so, the paper explores the role of the labor force participation in determining the trend unemployment. We find an inverse V-shaped pattern for the unemployment rate trend over time in Turkey, currently standing between 8.5 and 9 percent, with an increasing labor market turnover. We also find that allowing for an explicit role for participation changes the results substantially, reducing the "natural" rate at first, but then getting closer to the baseline over time. Finally, we show that this parsimonious model can be used for forecasting unemployment in Turkey with relative ease and accuracy.
Subjects: 
Risk measurement
systemic risk
connectedness
systemically important financial institutions
vector autoregression
variance decomposition
JEL: 
C3
G2
Document Type: 
Working Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.