Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/104751 
Year of Publication: 
2014
Series/Report no.: 
WTO Staff Working Paper No. ERSD-2014-05
Publisher: 
World Trade Organization (WTO), Geneva
Abstract: 
Constructing fully traceable scenarios based on assumptions grounded in the literature, we are also able to isolate the relative impact of key economic drivers. We find that the stakes for developing countries are particularly high: The emergence of new players in the world economy, intensification of South-South trade and diversification into skill-intensive activities may continue only in a dynamic economic and open trade environment. Current trends towards increased regionalization may be reversed, with multilateral trade relationships gaining in importance. Hypothetical mega-regionals could slow down, but not frustrate the prevalence of multilateralism. Continuing technological progress is likely to have the biggest impact on future economic developments around the globe. Population dynamics are influential as well: For some countries, up-skilling will be crucial, for others labour shortages may be addressed through migration. Several developing countries would benefit from increased capital mobility; others will only diversify into dynamic sectors, when trade costs are further reduced.
Subjects: 
international trade
macroeconomic projections
CGE simulations
JEL: 
E27
F02
F17
F47
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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