Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/87369 
Year of Publication: 
2012
Series/Report no.: 
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. 12-067/4
Publisher: 
Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam and Rotterdam
Abstract: 
Earnings forecasts can be useful for investment decisions. Research on earnings forecasts has focused on forecast performance in relation to firm characteristics, on categorizing the analysts into groups with similar behaviour and on the effect of an earnings announcement by thefirm on future earnings forecasts. In this paper we investigate the factors that determine the value of the forecast and also investigate to what extent the timing of the forecast can be modeled. We propose a novel methodology that allows for such an investigation. As an illustration we analyze within-year earnings forecasts for AMD in the period 1997 to 2011, where the data are obtained from the I/B/E/S database. Our empirical findings suggest clear drivers of the value and the timing of the earnings forecast. We thus show that not only the forecasts themselves are predictable, but that also the timing of the quotes is predictable to some extent.
Subjects: 
Earnings Forecasts
Earnings Announcements
Financial Markets
Financial Analysts
JEL: 
G17
G24
M41
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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