Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/83647 
Year of Publication: 
2013
Series/Report no.: 
HWWI Research Paper No. 140
Publisher: 
Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI), Hamburg
Abstract: 
We investigate the performance of the IHK business climate indices as forecasting tools within a growth framework at the level of four federal states in Northern Germany. In doing this, we match quarterly index scores with estimates of quarterly production data, generated through a Chow-Lin procedure. Estimating the model reveals strong linkages of the index scores to short-term output growth at the regional level, even after controlling for prior information on the position in the business cycle as well as for nation-wide fluctuations. Examining the forecasting accuracy of our model by means of out-of-sample predictions confirms these results: the model clearly outperforms an autoregressive benchmark. This can to a large part be traced back to information conveyed by the IHK index.
Document Type: 
Working Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size
731.31 kB





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.