Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/80824 
Year of Publication: 
2012
Series/Report no.: 
KOF Working Papers No. 304
Publisher: 
ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, Zurich
Abstract: 
In a pioneering attempt we present the R(ecession)-word index for Switzerland. We evaluate its predictive ability of GDP growth using real-time vintages of GDP data, closely simulating flow of information in the past. We find that inclusion of the R-word index led to statistically significant improvement in forecast accuracy over the benchmark autoregressive model. Largest improvements in forecast accuracy were observed in the period around the Great Recession.
Subjects: 
Recession
nowcasting
real-time data
Switzerland
JEL: 
C22
C53
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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