Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/77662 
Autor:innen: 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2013
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 4312
Verlag: 
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Zusammenfassung: 
Using the framework provided by the asymmetric-information and real-options theories, we examine the impact of uncertainty on firms' decisions and market outcomes. We construct alternative measures of uncertainty based on survey of professional forecasters and our estimation of regression-based forecasting models for GDP growth, inflation, S&P500 stock price index, and fuel prices. Our results indicate that greater uncertainty has a negative impact on growth of employment and the number of businesses, and the effects are primarily felt by relatively smaller businesses. The impact on large businesses are generally non-existent or weaker. Our results suggest that to truly understand the effects of uncertainty on firms' decisions, we need to focus on the relatively smaller and entrepreneurial businesses. We discuss some implications for framing of policy.
Schlagwörter: 
uncertainty
small businesses
entrepreneurship
employment
number of businesses
financing-constraints
real-options
JEL: 
L11
D80
O30
G10
L40
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper
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