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http://hdl.handle.net/10419/67114
  
Title:Evaluating Phillips curve based inflation forecasts in Europe: A note PDF Logo
Authors:Croonenbroeck, Carsten
Stadtmann, Georg
Issue Date:2012
Series/Report no.:Discussion Paper, European University Viadrina, Department of Business Administration and Economics 329
Abstract:We run out-of-sample forecasts for the inflation rate of 15 euro-zone countries using a NAIRU Phillips curve and a naïve reference model. Comparisons show that the naïve model returns better forecasts in almost all cases. We provide evidence that the Phillips curves' goodness of fit is rather high. However, forecasting power is comparatively low.
Subjects:Phillips Curve
Forecasting
Europe
RMSE
JEL:C53
E31
E37
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:Diskussionspapiere, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät, Europa-Universität Viadrina

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