Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/66972
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dc.contributor.authorRossiter, Jamesen_US
dc.date.accessioned2010-09-27en_US
dc.date.accessioned2012-11-28T14:18:28Z-
dc.date.available2012-11-28T14:18:28Z-
dc.date.issued2010en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/66972-
dc.description.abstractForecasts of global economic activity and inflation are important inputs when conducting monetary policy in small open economies such as Canada. As part of the Bank of Canada's broad agenda to augment its short-term forecasting tools, the author constructs simple mixed-frequency forecasting equations for quarterly global output, imports, and inflation using the monthly global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). When compared against two benchmark models, the results show that the PMIs are useful for forecasting developments in the global economy. As the forecasts are updated throughout the quarter with the monthly release of the PMI, forecasting performance generally improves. An analysis of the forecasts over the period of the Great Recession (in particular, 2008Q4 to 2009Q2) shows that, while models that include the soft PMI indicators did not fully capture the sharp deterioration in the global economy, they nevertheless improved the forecasts relative to the benchmark models. This finding highlights the usefulness of such indicators for short-term forecasting.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisher|aBank of Canada |cOttawaen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aBank of Canada Discussion Paper |x2010-12en_US
dc.subject.jelE37en_US
dc.subject.jelF47en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordEconomic modelsen_US
dc.subject.keywordinternational topicsen_US
dc.subject.stwInternationaler Finanzmarkten_US
dc.subject.stwGlobalisierungen_US
dc.subject.stwInflationsrateen_US
dc.subject.stwPrognoseen_US
dc.subject.stwGeldpolitiken_US
dc.subject.stwKanadaen_US
dc.titleNowcasting the global economyen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn635659298en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen_US

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