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Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik 2012 (Göttingen): Neue Wege und Herausforderungen für den Arbeitsmarkt des 21. Jh. >
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http://hdl.handle.net/10419/66057
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| Title: | | Measuring Vulnerability to Poverty Using Long-Term Panel Data  |
| Authors: | | Landau, Katja Klasen, Stephan Zucchini, Walter |
| Issue Date: | | 2012 |
| Series/Report no.: | | Beiträge zur Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik 2012: Neue Wege und Herausforderungen für den Arbeitsmarkt des 21. Jahrhunderts - Session: Measurement of Poverty and Malnutrition B01-V1 |
| Abstract: | | We investigate the accuracy of ex ante assessments of vulnerability to poverty using cross-sectional data and panel data. We use long-term panel data from Germany and apply different regression models, based on household covariates and previous-year equivalence income, to classify a household as vulnerable or not. Predictive performance is assessed using the Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC), which takes account of false positive as well as true positive rates. Estimates based on cross-sectional data are much less accurate than those based on panel data, but for Germany, the accuracy of vulnerability predictions is limited even when panel data are used. In part this low accuracy is due to low poverty incidence and high mobility. |
| JEL: | | C23 C52 I32 |
| Document Type: | | Conference Paper |
| Appears in Collections: | | Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik 2012 (Göttingen): Neue Wege und Herausforderungen für den Arbeitsmarkt des 21. Jh.
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