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Title:The long-run determinants of fertility: One century of demographic change 1900 - 1999 PDF Logo
Authors:Herzer, Dierk
Strulik, Holger
Vollmer, Sebastian
Issue Date:2010
Series/Report no.:Discussion Paper, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät, Leibniz Universität Hannover 456
Abstract:We examine the long-run relationship between fertility, mortality, and income using panel cointegration techniques and the available data for the last century. Our main result is that mortality changes and growth of income per capita account for a major part of the fertility change characterizing the demographic transition. The change of mortality alone, however, is insufficient to explain the secular decline of population growth. For that interaction of mortality and income growth is needed. These results are robust against alternative estimation methods, potential outliers, sample selection, different measures of mortality, and the sample period. In addition, our causality tests suggest that fertility is both endogenous and exogenous. In particular, we find that an increase of fertility reduces growth of income per capita.
Subjects:Fertility
mortality
economic development
panel cointegration
JEL:J1
J13
C23
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:Diskussionspapiere, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät, Universität Hannover

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