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ISER Working Paper Series, Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER), University of Essex >
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http://hdl.handle.net/10419/65952
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| Title: | | The total survey error paradigm and pre-election polls: The case of the 2006 Italian general elections  |
| Authors: | | Fumagalli, Laura Sala, Emanuela |
| Issue Date: | | 2011 |
| Series/Report no.: | | ISER Working Paper Series 2011-29 |
| Abstract: | | Pre-election polls sometimes fail to reach the purpose for which they are carried out: to provide accurate predictions of electoral out-comes. By looking at the 2006 Italian General Elections, this paper aims to assess the role that different factors play in determining the accuracy of the pre-election polls. We find strong evidence that the quality of the sampling frame and non-respondents may contribute to biasing the polls results. This paper also aims to show how to over-come some of the limitations of the survey data by using statistical matching techniques and weighing procedures. |
| Subjects: | | total survey error coverage error statistical matching weighting pre electoral polls |
| JEL: | | C81 C83 D72 |
| Document Type: | | Working Paper |
| Appears in Collections: | | ISER Working Paper Series, Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER), University of Essex
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