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Title:The total survey error paradigm and pre-election polls: The case of the 2006 Italian general elections PDF Logo
Authors:Fumagalli, Laura
Sala, Emanuela
Issue Date:2011
Series/Report no.:ISER Working Paper Series 2011-29
Abstract:Pre-election polls sometimes fail to reach the purpose for which they are carried out: to provide accurate predictions of electoral out-comes. By looking at the 2006 Italian General Elections, this paper aims to assess the role that different factors play in determining the accuracy of the pre-election polls. We find strong evidence that the quality of the sampling frame and non-respondents may contribute to biasing the polls results. This paper also aims to show how to over-come some of the limitations of the survey data by using statistical matching techniques and weighing procedures.
Subjects:total survey error
coverage error
statistical matching
weighting
pre electoral polls
JEL:C81
C83
D72
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:ISER Working Paper Series, Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER), University of Essex

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