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Title:Early warning indicators for the German banking system: A macroprudential analysis PDF Logo
Authors:Jahn, Nadya
Kick, Thomas
Issue Date:2012
Series/Report no.:Discussion Paper, Deutsche Bundesbank 27/2012
Abstract:Over the past two decades, Germany experienced several periods of banking system instability rather than full-blown banking system crises. In this paper we introduce a continuous and forward-looking stability indicator for the banking system based on information on all financial institutions in Germany between 1995 and 2010. Explaining this measure by means of panel regression techniques, we identify significant macroprudential early warning indicators (such as asset price indicators, leading indicators for the business cycle and monetary indicators) and spillover effects. Whereas international spillovers play a significant role across all banking sectors, regional spillovers and the credit-to-GDP ratio are more important for cooperative banks and less relevant for commercial banks.
Subjects:Early Warning Indicators
Banking System Stability
Regional Spillover Effects
Panel Regression Techniques
JEL:C23
E44
G01
G21
ISBN:978-3-86558-854-8
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:Discussion Papers, Deutsche Bundesbank

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