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dc.contributor.authorVo Phuong Mai Leen_US
dc.contributor.authorMeenagh, Daviden_US
dc.contributor.authorMinford, Patricken_US
dc.date.accessioned2012-07-18en_US
dc.date.accessioned2012-11-02T14:29:52Z-
dc.date.available2012-11-02T14:29:52Z-
dc.date.issued2012en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/65834-
dc.description.abstractWe add the Bernanke-Gertler-Gilchrist model to a modified version of the Smets-Wouters model of the US in order to explore the causes of the banking crisis. We test the model against the data on HP-detrended data and reestimate it by indirect inference; the resulting model passes the Wald test on output, inflation and interest rates. We then extract the model's implied residuals on US unfiltered data since 1984 to replicate how the model predicts the crisis. The main banking shock tracks the unfolding 'sub-prime' shock, which appears to have been authored mainly by US government intervention. This shock worsens the banking crisis but 'traditional' shocks explain the bulk of the crisis; the non-stationarity of the productivity shock plays a key role. Crises occur when there is a 'run' of bad shocks; based on this sample they occur on average once every 40 years and when they occur around half are accompanied by financial crisis. Financial shocks on their own, even when extreme, do not cause crises - provided the government acts swiftly to counteract such a shock as happened in this sample.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherCardiff University, Cardiff Business School Cardiffen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesCardiff Economics Working Papers E2012/14en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.titleWhat causes banking crises? An empirical investigationen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn719685877en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen_US
Appears in Collections:Cardiff Economics Working Papers, Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University

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