Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/65395
Authors: 
Lehmann, Robert
Wohlrabe, Klaus
Year of Publication: 
2012
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper: Fiscal Policy, Macroeconomics and Growth 3956
Abstract: 
In this paper, we assess the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts at the regional level using a unique data set at quarterly frequency. We forecast gross domestic product (GDP) for two German states (Free State of Saxony and Baden-Württemberg) and Eastern Germany. We overcome the problem of a data-poor environment at the sub-national level by including more than 300 international, national and regional indicators. We calculate single-indicator, multi-indicator and pooled forecasts. Our results show that we can significantly increase forecast accuracy compared to an autoregressive benchmark model, both for short- and long-term predictions. Furthermore, our best leading indicators describe the specific regional economic structure better than other indicators.
Subjects: 
leading indicators
regional forecasting
forecast evaluation
forecast combination
data rich environment
JEL: 
C32
C52
C53
E37
R11
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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