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dc.contributor.authorLehmann, Roberten_US
dc.contributor.authorWohlrabe, Klausen_US
dc.date.accessioned2012-10-18en_US
dc.date.accessioned2012-10-19T15:42:48Z-
dc.date.available2012-10-19T15:42:48Z-
dc.date.issued2012en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/65395-
dc.description.abstractIn this paper, we assess the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts at the regional level using a unique data set at quarterly frequency. We forecast gross domestic product (GDP) for two German states (Free State of Saxony and Baden-Württemberg) and Eastern Germany. We overcome the problem of a data-poor environment at the sub-national level by including more than 300 international, national and regional indicators. We calculate single-indicator, multi-indicator and pooled forecasts. Our results show that we can significantly increase forecast accuracy compared to an autoregressive benchmark model, both for short- and long-term predictions. Furthermore, our best leading indicators describe the specific regional economic structure better than other indicators.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherCESifo Münchenen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesCESifo Working Paper: Fiscal Policy, Macroeconomics and Growth 3956en_US
dc.subject.jelC32en_US
dc.subject.jelC52en_US
dc.subject.jelC53en_US
dc.subject.jelE37en_US
dc.subject.jelR11en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordleading indicatorsen_US
dc.subject.keywordregional forecastingen_US
dc.subject.keywordforecast evaluationen_US
dc.subject.keywordforecast combinationen_US
dc.subject.keyworddata rich environmenten_US
dc.subject.stwKonjunkturindikatoren_US
dc.subject.stwKonjunkturprognoseen_US
dc.subject.stwRegionaler Konjunkturzyklusen_US
dc.subject.stwTeilstaaten_US
dc.subject.stwDeutschlanden_US
dc.subject.stwSachsenen_US
dc.subject.stwBaden-Württembergen_US
dc.subject.stwNeue Bundesländeren_US
dc.titleForecasting GDP at the regional level with many predictorsen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn727864599en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen_US
Appears in Collections:CESifo Working Papers, CESifo Group Munich

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