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EconStor >
ifo Institut – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München >
CESifo Working Papers, CESifo Group Munich >
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/10419/65395
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Full metadata record
| DC Field | | Value | | Language |
| dc.contributor.author | | Lehmann, Robert | | en_US |
| dc.contributor.author | | Wohlrabe, Klaus | | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | | 2012-10-18 | | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | | 2012-10-19T15:42:48Z | | - |
| dc.date.available | | 2012-10-19T15:42:48Z | | - |
| dc.date.issued | | 2012 | | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri | | http://hdl.handle.net/10419/65395 | | - |
| dc.description.abstract | | In this paper, we assess the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts at the regional level using a unique data set at quarterly frequency. We forecast gross domestic product (GDP) for two German states (Free State of Saxony and Baden-Württemberg) and Eastern Germany. We overcome the problem of a data-poor environment at the sub-national level by including more than 300 international, national and regional indicators. We calculate single-indicator, multi-indicator and pooled forecasts. Our results show that we can significantly increase forecast accuracy compared to an autoregressive benchmark model, both for short- and long-term predictions. Furthermore, our best leading indicators describe the specific regional economic structure better than other indicators. | | en_US |
| dc.language.iso | | eng | | en_US |
| dc.publisher | | CESifo München | | en_US |
| dc.relation.ispartofseries | | CESifo Working Paper: Fiscal Policy, Macroeconomics and Growth 3956 | | en_US |
| dc.subject.jel | | C32 | | en_US |
| dc.subject.jel | | C52 | | en_US |
| dc.subject.jel | | C53 | | en_US |
| dc.subject.jel | | E37 | | en_US |
| dc.subject.jel | | R11 | | en_US |
| dc.subject.ddc | | 330 | | en_US |
| dc.subject.keyword | | leading indicators | | en_US |
| dc.subject.keyword | | regional forecasting | | en_US |
| dc.subject.keyword | | forecast evaluation | | en_US |
| dc.subject.keyword | | forecast combination | | en_US |
| dc.subject.keyword | | data rich environment | | en_US |
| dc.subject.stw | | Konjunkturindikator | | en_US |
| dc.subject.stw | | Konjunkturprognose | | en_US |
| dc.subject.stw | | Regionaler Konjunkturzyklus | | en_US |
| dc.subject.stw | | Teilstaat | | en_US |
| dc.subject.stw | | Deutschland | | en_US |
| dc.subject.stw | | Sachsen | | en_US |
| dc.subject.stw | | Baden-Württemberg | | en_US |
| dc.subject.stw | | Neue Bundesländer | | en_US |
| dc.title | | Forecasting GDP at the regional level with many predictors | | en_US |
| dc.type | | Working Paper | | en_US |
| dc.identifier.ppn | | 727864599 | | en_US |
| dc.rights | | http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen | | en_US |
| Appears in Collections: | | CESifo Working Papers, CESifo Group Munich
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