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ifo Institut – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München >
CESifo Working Papers, CESifo Group Munich >
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http://hdl.handle.net/10419/65395
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| Title: | | Forecasting GDP at the regional level with many predictors  |
| Authors: | | Lehmann, Robert Wohlrabe, Klaus |
| Issue Date: | | 2012 |
| Series/Report no.: | | CESifo Working Paper: Fiscal Policy, Macroeconomics and Growth 3956 |
| Abstract: | | In this paper, we assess the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts at the regional level using a unique data set at quarterly frequency. We forecast gross domestic product (GDP) for two German states (Free State of Saxony and Baden-Württemberg) and Eastern Germany. We overcome the problem of a data-poor environment at the sub-national level by including more than 300 international, national and regional indicators. We calculate single-indicator, multi-indicator and pooled forecasts. Our results show that we can significantly increase forecast accuracy compared to an autoregressive benchmark model, both for short- and long-term predictions. Furthermore, our best leading indicators describe the specific regional economic structure better than other indicators. |
| Subjects: | | leading indicators regional forecasting forecast evaluation forecast combination data rich environment |
| JEL: | | C32 C52 C53 E37 R11 |
| Document Type: | | Working Paper |
| Appears in Collections: | | CESifo Working Papers, CESifo Group Munich
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