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Title:The golden hello and political transitions PDF Logo
Authors:Aidt, Toke S.
Albornoz, Facundo
Gassebner, Martin
Issue Date:2012
Series/Report no.:CESifo Working Paper: Public Choice 3957
Abstract:We analyze the influence of IMF and World Bank programs on political regime transitions. We develop an extended version of Acemoglu and Robinson's [American Economic Review 91, 2001] model of political transitions to show how the anticipation of new loans from in-ternational financial institutions can trigger political transitions which would not otherwise have taken place. We test this unexplored implication of the theory empirically. We find in a world sample from 1970 to 2002 that the anticipation of receiving new programs immediately after a political regime transition increases the probability of a transition from autocracy to democracy and reduces the probability of democratic survival.
Subjects:political transitions
democracy
autocracy
IMF
World Bank
JEL:O19
D72
F59
F53
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:CESifo Working Papers, CESifo Group Munich

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