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dc.contributor.authorSchmidt, Carstenen_US
dc.contributor.authorWerwatz, Axelen_US
dc.date.accessioned2012-10-19T10:25:15Z-
dc.date.available2012-10-19T10:25:15Z-
dc.date.issued2002en_US
dc.identifier.piurn:nbn:de:kobv:11-10048875en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/65357-
dc.description.abstractFor the Euro 2000 Soccer Championships an experimental asset market was condueted, with traders buying and selling contracts on the winners of individual matches. Market-generated probabilities are compared to professional bet quotas, and factors that are responsible for the quality of the market prognosis are identified. The comparison shows, that the market is more accurate than the random predictor and slightly better than professional bet quotas, in the sense of mean square error. Moreover, the more certain the market predicts the outcome of an event the more accurate is the prediction.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherHumboldt-Universität Berlinen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesDiscussion Papers, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes 2002,29en_US
dc.subject.jelC93en_US
dc.subject.jelD4en_US
dc.subject.jelG1en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordexperimental asset marketsen_US
dc.subject.keywordprognosisen_US
dc.subject.keywordmarket efficiencyen_US
dc.titleHow accurate do markets predict the outcome of an event? The Euro 2000 soccer championships experimenten_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn726381837en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen_US
dc.identifier.repecRePEc:zbw:sfb373:200229-
Appears in Collections:Discussion Papers, SFB 373, HU Berlin

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