|
EconStor >
Humboldt-Universität Berlin >
Sonderforschungsbereich 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes, Humboldt-Universität Berlin >
Discussion Papers, SFB 373, HU Berlin >
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/10419/65357
|
| | |
| Title: | | How accurate do markets predict the outcome of an event? The Euro 2000 soccer championships experiment  |
| Authors: | | Schmidt, Carsten Werwatz, Axel |
| Issue Date: | | 2002 |
| Series/Report no.: | | Discussion Papers, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes 2002,29 |
| Abstract: | | For the Euro 2000 Soccer Championships an experimental asset market was condueted, with traders buying and selling contracts on the winners of individual matches. Market-generated probabilities are compared to professional bet quotas, and factors that are responsible for the quality of the market prognosis are identified. The comparison shows, that the market is more accurate than the random predictor and slightly better than professional bet quotas, in the sense of mean square error. Moreover, the more certain the market predicts the outcome of an event the more accurate is the prediction. |
| Subjects: | | experimental asset markets prognosis market efficiency |
| JEL: | | C93 D4 G1 |
| Persistent Identifier of the first edition: | | urn:nbn:de:kobv:11-10048875 |
| Document Type: | | Working Paper |
| Appears in Collections: | | Discussion Papers, SFB 373, HU Berlin
|
| |
| | |
Download bibliographical data as:
BibTeX
|
| |
Share on:http://hdl.handle.net/10419/65357
|
Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.
|