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Title:How accurate do markets predict the outcome of an event? The Euro 2000 soccer championships experiment PDF Logo
Authors:Schmidt, Carsten
Werwatz, Axel
Issue Date:2002
Series/Report no.:Discussion Papers, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes 2002,29
Abstract:For the Euro 2000 Soccer Championships an experimental asset market was condueted, with traders buying and selling contracts on the winners of individual matches. Market-generated probabilities are compared to professional bet quotas, and factors that are responsible for the quality of the market prognosis are identified. The comparison shows, that the market is more accurate than the random predictor and slightly better than professional bet quotas, in the sense of mean square error. Moreover, the more certain the market predicts the outcome of an event the more accurate is the prediction.
Subjects:experimental asset markets
prognosis
market efficiency
JEL:C93
D4
G1
Persistent Identifier of the first edition:urn:nbn:de:kobv:11-10048875
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:Discussion Papers, SFB 373, HU Berlin

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