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Title:Long memory in German energy price indices PDF Logo
Authors:Barros, Carlos Pestana
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria
Gil-Alana, Luis A.
Issue Date:2012
Series/Report no.:CESifo Working Paper: Energy and Climate Economics 3935
Abstract:This study examines the long-memory properties of German energy price indices (specifically, import and export prices, as well as producer and consumer prices) for hard coal, lignite, mineral oil and natural gas adopting a fractional integration modelling framework. The analysis is undertaken using monthly data from January 2000 to August 2011. The results suggest nonstationary long memory in the series (with orders of integration equal to or higher than 1) when breaks are not allowed for. However, endogenous break tests indicate a single break in all series except for producer prices for lignite for which two breaks are detected. When such breaks are taken into account, and with autocorrelated disturbances, evidence of mean reversion is found in practically all cases.
Subjects:energy prices
Germany
fractional integration
persistence
breaks and outliers
JEL:C32
E30
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:CESifo Working Papers, CESifo Group Munich

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