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dc.contributor.authorAizenman, Joshuaen_US
dc.contributor.authorPasricha, Gurnain Kauren_US
dc.date.accessioned2010-11-04en_US
dc.date.accessioned2012-09-28T12:41:56Z-
dc.date.available2012-09-28T12:41:56Z-
dc.date.issued2010en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/64535-
dc.description.abstractThe end of the great moderation has profound implications on the assessment of fiscal sustainability. The pertinent issue goes beyond the obvious increase in the stock of public debt/GDP induced by the global recession, to include the neglected perspective that the vulnerabilities associated with a given public debt/GDP increase with the future volatility of key economic variables. We evaluate for a given future projected public debt/GDP, the possible distribution of the fiscal burden or the flow cost of funding debt for each OECD country, assuming that this in future decades resembles that in the past decades. Fiscal projections may be alarmist if one jumps from the priors of great moderation to the prior of permanent high future burden. Prudent adjustment for countries exposed to heightened vulnerability may entail both short term stabilization and forward looking fiscal reforms.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherUniv. of California at Santa Cruz, Dep. of Economics Santa Cruz, Calif.en_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesWorking Papers, UC Santa Cruz Economics Department 670en_US
dc.subject.jelE62en_US
dc.subject.jelE63en_US
dc.subject.jelE66en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordflow burden of public debten_US
dc.subject.keywordfiscal vulnerabilityen_US
dc.subject.stwFinanzpolitiken_US
dc.subject.stwÖffentliche Schuldenen_US
dc.subject.stwZinsen_US
dc.subject.stwWirtschaftswachstumen_US
dc.subject.stwVolatilitäten_US
dc.subject.stwFinanzreformen_US
dc.subject.stwOECD-Staatenen_US
dc.titleFiscal fragility: What the past says about the futureen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn638482224en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen_US
Appears in Collections:Working Papers, Economics Department, UC Santa Cruz

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