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dc.contributor.authorAizenman, Joshuaen_US
dc.contributor.authorJinjarak, Yothinen_US
dc.date.accessioned2010-03-22en_US
dc.date.accessioned2012-09-28T12:41:53Z-
dc.date.available2012-09-28T12:41:53Z-
dc.date.issued2008en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/64531-
dc.description.abstractThis paper evaluates the degree to which current account patterns are explained by the variables suggested by the literature, and reflects on possible future patterns. We start with panel regressions explaining the current account of 69 countries during 1981-2006. We identify an asymmetric effect of the US as the 'demander of last resort': a 1% increase in the lagged US imports/GDP is associated with 0.3% increase of current account surpluses of countries running surpluses, but with insignificant changes of current account deficits of countries running deficits. Overall, the panel regressions account for not more than 4/5 of the variation. We apply the regression results to assess China's current account over the next six years, projecting a large drop in its account/GDP surpluses.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherUniv. of California at Santa Cruz, Dep. of Economics Santa Cruz, Calif.en_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesWorking Papers, UC Santa Cruz Economics Department 646en_US
dc.subject.jelF15en_US
dc.subject.jelF32en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordcurrent accounten_US
dc.subject.keyworddemander of last resorten_US
dc.subject.keywordglobal balancesen_US
dc.subject.stwZahlungsbilanzungleichgewichten_US
dc.subject.stwPrognoseen_US
dc.subject.stwSch├Ątzungen_US
dc.subject.stwWelten_US
dc.subject.stwChinaen_US
dc.subject.stwUSAen_US
dc.titleThe US as the "demander of last resort" and its implications on China's current accounten_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn587694246en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen_US
Appears in Collections:Working Papers, Economics Department, UC Santa Cruz

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