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http://hdl.handle.net/10419/64075
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| Title: | | Capital flows: Catalyst or hindrance to economic takeoffs?  |
| Authors: | | Aizenman, Joshua Sushko, Vladyslav |
| Issue Date: | | 2011 |
| Series/Report no.: | | Working Papers, Santa Cruz Institute for International Economics 11-05 |
| Abstract: | | This paper applies a probit estimation to assess the relationship between economic takeoffs during 1950-2000 and inflows of portfolio debt, portfolio equity, and FDI, controlling for country's stock of short-term external debt and commodity terms of trade. Average level of FDI inflows is associated with a 23 percent higher takeoff probability relative to a zero FDI inflow benchmark, and this effect is highest for the Latin America subsample, with a 65 rise in takeoff probability. Higher stock of short term external debt has been associated with a substantial negative effect on the probability of a takeoff, and the effect of the short terms debt overhang is largest for Latin American countries. Yet, virtually all the takeoffs were associated with a rise in portfolio debt inflows. At the sample mean, inflow of portfolio debt is associated with approximately 25 percent higher probability of a takeoff. In contrast, a one standard deviation increase in equity outflows (inflows) is associated with a 47 percent (17 percent) decline in the probability of a takeoff. A one standard deviation improvement in commodity terms of trade is associated with 28 percent higher takeoff probability. |
| JEL: | | F15 F21 F36 F43 O40 |
| Document Type: | | Working Paper |
| Appears in Collections: | | Working Papers, Santa Cruz Institute for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz
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