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dc.contributor.authorAizenman, Joshuaen
dc.contributor.authorJinjarak, Yothinen
dc.date.accessioned2009-07-13-
dc.date.accessioned2012-09-21T11:54:08Z-
dc.date.available2012-09-21T11:54:08Z-
dc.date.issued2008-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/64047-
dc.description.abstractThis paper evaluates the degree to which current account patterns are explained by the variables suggested by the literature, and reflects on possible future patterns. We start with panel regressions explaining the current account of 69 countries during 1981-2006. We identify an asymmetric effect of the US as the demander of last resort:” a 1% increase in the lagged US imports/GDP is associated with 0.3% increase of current account surpluses of countries running surpluses, but with insignificant changes of current account deficits of countries running deficits. Overall, the panel regressions account for not more than 4/5 of the variation. We apply the regression results to assess China's current account over the next six years, projecting a large drop in its account/GDP surpluses.en
dc.language.isoengen
dc.publisher|aUniversity of California, Santa Cruz Institute for International Economics (SCIIE) |cSanta Cruz, CAen
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aWorking Paper |x08-02en
dc.subject.jelF15en
dc.subject.jelF32en
dc.subject.ddc330en
dc.subject.keywordcurrent accounten
dc.subject.keyworddemander of last resorten
dc.subject.keywordglobal balancesen
dc.subject.stwZahlungsbilanzungleichgewichten
dc.subject.stwPrognoseen
dc.subject.stwSchätzungen
dc.subject.stwWelten
dc.subject.stwChinaen
dc.subject.stwUSAen
dc.titleThe US as the "demander of last resort" and its implications on China's current account-
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.identifier.ppn604560753en
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen

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