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dc.contributor.authorAizenman, Joshuaen_US
dc.contributor.authorSpiegel, Marken_US
dc.date.accessioned2009-07-13en_US
dc.date.accessioned2012-09-21T11:53:48Z-
dc.date.available2012-09-21T11:53:48Z-
dc.date.issued2007en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/64038-
dc.description.abstractThis paper identifies factors associated with takeoff - a sustained period of high growth following a period of stagnation. We examine a panel of 241 stagnation episodes” from 146 countries, 54 % of these episodes are followed by takeoffs. Countries that experience takeoffs average 2.3% annual growth following their stagnation episodes, while those that do not average 0% growth; 46% of the takeoffs are sustained,” i.e. lasting 8 years or longer. Using probit estimation, we find that de jure trade openness is positively and significantly associated with takeoffs. A one standard deviation increase in de jure trade openness is associated with a 55% increase in the probability of a takeoff in our default specification. We also find evidence that capital account openness encourages takeoff responses, although this channel is less robust. Measures of de facto trade openness, as well as a variety of other potential conditioning variables, are found to be poor predictors of takeoffs. We also examine the determinants of nations achieving sustained takeoffs. While we fail to find a significant role for openness in determining whether or not takeoffs are sustained, we do find a role for output composition: Takeoffs in countries with more commodity-intensive output bundles are less likely to be sustained, while takeoffs in countries that are more service-intensive are more likely to be sustained. This suggests that adverse terms of trade shocks prevalent among commodity exports may play a role in ending long-term high growth episodes.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherSanta Cruz Inst. for International Economics Santa Cruz, Calif.en_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesWorking Papers, Santa Cruz Center for International Economics 07-09en_US
dc.subject.jelF13en_US
dc.subject.jelF15en_US
dc.subject.jelF36en_US
dc.subject.jelO11en_US
dc.subject.jelO57en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordtakeoffen_US
dc.subject.keywordopennessen_US
dc.subject.keywordcapital accounten_US
dc.subject.keywordstagnationen_US
dc.subject.keywordeconomic growthen_US
dc.subject.stwWirtschaftskriseen_US
dc.subject.stwKonjunkturen_US
dc.subject.stwWirtschaftswachstumen_US
dc.subject.stwOffene Volkswirtschaften_US
dc.subject.stwWelten_US
dc.titleTakeoffsen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn604589077en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen_US
Appears in Collections:Working Papers, Santa Cruz Institute for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz

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