Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/62800 
Year of Publication: 
2004
Series/Report no.: 
Working Paper No. 521
Publisher: 
Queen Mary University of London, Department of Economics, London
Abstract: 
In this paper we explore the consequences for forecasting of the following two facts: first, that over time statistical agencies revise and improve published data, so that observations on more recent events are those that are least well measured. Second, that economies are such that observations on the most recent events contain the the largest signal about the future. We discuss a variety of forecasting problems in this environment, and present an application using a univariate model of the quarterly growth of UK private consumption expenditure.
Subjects: 
Forecasting, Data revisions, Dynamic models
JEL: 
C32
C53
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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