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Title:Predictive accuracy of political stock markets: Empirical evidence from a European perspective PDF Logo
Authors:Berlemann, Michael
Schmidt, Carsten
Issue Date:2001
Series/Report no.:Discussion Papers, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes 2001,57
Abstract:In a meta study of 25 political stock markets conducted in Germany in the last decade we analyze their predictive success. Although the predictions of political stock markets are highly correlated with the corresponding polls, the markets are able to aggregate additional information. One explanatory variable for variations in predictive success of the German stock markets relative to the polls is market efficiency. Even though the overall predictions of the political stock markets are quite reliable on the aggregate level we find systematic prediction errors on the contract level that can be attributed to the vote share size and to individual trader biases.
Subjects:market efficiency
forecasting
political stock markets
proportional representation
JEL:C93
D82
G1
Persistent Identifier of the first edition:urn:nbn:de:kobv:11-10050132
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:Discussion Papers, SFB 373, HU Berlin

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