EconStor >
Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit (IZA), Bonn >
IZA Discussion Papers, Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit (IZA) >

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:

http://hdl.handle.net/10419/62403
  

Full metadata record

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorRendon, Silvioen_US
dc.date.accessioned2012-09-11en_US
dc.date.accessioned2012-09-14T11:05:36Z-
dc.date.available2012-09-14T11:05:36Z-
dc.date.issued2012en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/62403-
dc.description.abstractI discuss the application of capture-recapture methods to estimating the total number of deaths in armed conflicts, and propose an alternative method based on a trivariate discrete choice model. Data come from the 'Truth and Reconciliation Commission' (TRC) of Peru, around 25000 deaths, classified by three sources of information, geographical strata, and perpetrator: the State and the Shining Path. In these data many killings have been only documented by one source, which makes a projection of killings unfeasible. TRC consultants Ball et al. (2003) tried to overcome this problem by means of a 'residual estimation,' consisting of merging data for different perpetrators. I show theoretically and empirically that this method over-estimates the number of deaths. Using a conditional trivariate Probit I estimate the total number of deaths in around 28000, 60% by the State, 40% by the Shining Path. This number is substantially lower and has a different composition than the around 69000 deaths, 30% by the State, 46% by the Shining Path, and 24% by 'other perpetrators,' calculated by Ball et al.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherIZA Bonnen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesDiscussion Paper series, Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit 6827en_US
dc.subject.jelD74en_US
dc.subject.jelC35en_US
dc.subject.jelC4en_US
dc.subject.jelO54en_US
dc.subject.jelP16en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordarmed conflicten_US
dc.subject.keywordcapture-recaptureen_US
dc.subject.keywordcount dataen_US
dc.subject.keyworddiscrete choiceen_US
dc.subject.keywordhuman rightsen_US
dc.subject.keywordmaximum-likelihood estimationen_US
dc.subject.keywordPoisson regressionen_US
dc.titleA discrete choice approach to estimating armed conflicts' casualties: Revisiting the numbers of a "Truth Commission"en_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn72541152Xen_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen_US
Appears in Collections:IZA Discussion Papers, Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit (IZA)

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat
72541152X.pdf440.08 kBAdobe PDF
No. of Downloads: Counter Stats
Show simple item record
Download bibliographical data as: BibTeX

Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.