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Title:Nonlinear Expectations in Speculative Markets PDF Logo
Authors:Reitz, Stefan
Rülke, Jan
Stadtmann, Georg
Issue Date:2012
Series/Report no.:Beiträge zur Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik 2012: Neue Wege und Herausforderungen für den Arbeitsmarkt des 21. Jahrhunderts - Session: Estimated Macro Models F18-V1
Abstract:Heterogenous agents models have proven to be capable of explaining price dynamics on speculative markets. In general, this is achieved by allowing time series properties to be state dependent. This paper investigates whether market participants' expectations already reflect these time varying nonlinearities. The empirical results are based on a new data set from the European Central Bank Survey of Professional Forecasters on oil price expectations. In particular, we find that forecasters form destabilizing expectations in the neighborhood of the fundamental value, whereas expectations tend to be stabilizing in the presence of substantial oil price misalignment.
JEL:C33
D84
Q47
Document Type:Conference Paper
Appears in Collections:Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik 2012: Neue Wege und Herausforderungen für den Arbeitsmarkt des 21. Jh.

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