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http://hdl.handle.net/10419/61420
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| Title: | | Exchange rate bands of inaction and play-hysteresis in German exports: Sectoral evidence for some OECD destinations  |
| Authors: | | Belke, Ansgar Göcke, Matthias Günther, Martin |
| Issue Date: | | 2012 |
| Series/Report no.: | | Discussion Papers, German Institute for Economic Research, DIW Berlin 1203 |
| Abstract: | | A non-linear model is applied where suddenly strong spurts of exports occur when changes of the exchange rate go beyond a zone of inaction. We call the latter a play area - analogous to mechanical play and implement an algorithm describing path-dependent playhysteresis into a regression framework. The hysteretic impact of real exchange rates on German exports is then estimated based on quarterly data from 1995Q1 to 2010Q3. For some of the main export partners of Germany outside the euro area and some of the most important tradable sectors we find significant hysteretic effects for a part of the German exports. |
| Subjects: | | exchange rate movements play-hysteresis modelling techniques switching/spline regression export demand |
| JEL: | | F14 C51 |
| Document Type: | | Working Paper |
| Appears in Collections: | | Publikationen von Forscherinnen und Forschern des DIW DIW-Diskussionspapiere
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