|
EconStor >
Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW), Berlin >
DIW-Diskussionspapiere >
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/10419/61346
|
| | |
| Title: | | Health care expenditures and longevity: Is there a Eubie Blake effect?  |
| Authors: | | Breyer, Friedrich Lorenz, Normann Niebel, Thomas |
| Issue Date: | | 2012 |
| Series/Report no.: | | Discussion Papers, German Institute for Economic Research, DIW Berlin 1226 |
| Abstract: | | It is still an open question whether increasing life expectancy as such is causing higher health care expenditures (HCE) in a population. According to the red herring hypothesis, the positive correlation between age and HCE is exclusively due to the fact that mortality rises with age and a large share of HCE is caused by proximity to death. As a consequence, rising longevity - through falling mortality rates - may even reduce HCE. However, a weakness of previous empirical studies is that they use cross-sectional evidence to make inferences on a development over time. In this paper we analyse the impact of rising longevity on the trend of HCE over time by using data for a pseudo-panel of German sickness fund members over the period 1997-2009. Using (dynamic) panel data models, we find that age, mortality and five-year survival rates have a positive impact on per-capita HCE. Our explanation for the last finding is that physicians treat patients more aggressively if they think the result will pay off for a longer time span, which we call Eubie Blake effect. A simulation on the basis of an official population forecast for Germany is used to isolate the effect of demographic ageing on real per-capita HCE over the next decades. |
| Subjects: | | Health care expenditures ageing longevity 5-year survival rate |
| JEL: | | H51 J11 I19 |
| Document Type: | | Working Paper |
| Appears in Collections: | | Publikationen von Forscherinnen und Forschern des DIW DIW-Diskussionspapiere
|
| |
| | |
Download bibliographical data as:
BibTeX
|
| |
Share on:http://hdl.handle.net/10419/61346
|
Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.
|