|
EconStor >
ifo Institut – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München >
CESifo Working Papers, CESifo Group Munich >
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/10419/61055
|
| | |
| Title: | | Prediction markets for economic forecasting  |
| Authors: | | Snowberg, Erik Wolfers, Justin Zitzewitz, Eric |
| Issue Date: | | 2012 |
| Series/Report no.: | | CESifo Working Paper: Monetary Policy and International Finance 3884 |
| Abstract: | | Prediction markets - markets used to forecast future events - have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their utilization by economic forecasters. We show that prediction markets have a number of attractive features: they quickly incorporate new information, are largely efficient, and impervious to manipulation. Moreover, markets generally exhibit lower statistical errors than professional forecasters and polls. Finally, we show how markets can be used to both uncover the economic model behind forecasts, as well as test existing economic models. |
| Subjects: | | prediction markets forecasting |
| JEL: | | C50 G14 |
| Document Type: | | Working Paper |
| Appears in Collections: | | CESifo Working Papers, CESifo Group Munich
|
| |
| | |
Download bibliographical data as:
BibTeX
|
| |
Share on:http://hdl.handle.net/10419/61055
|
Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.
|