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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/10419/60968
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| DC Field | | Value | | Language |
| dc.contributor.author | | Davis, Steven J. | | en_US |
| dc.contributor.author | | Kahn, James A. | | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | | 2010-04-28 | | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | | 2012-08-17T14:38:44Z | | - |
| dc.date.available | | 2012-08-17T14:38:44Z | | - |
| dc.date.issued | | 2008 | | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri | | http://hdl.handle.net/10419/60968 | | - |
| dc.description.abstract | | We review evidence on the Great Moderation together with evidence about volatility trends at the micro level to develop a potential explanation for the decline in aggregate volatility since the 1980s and its consequences. The key elements are declines in firm-level volatility and aggregate volatility-most dramatically in the durable goods sector-but with no decline in household consumption volatility and individual earnings uncertainty. Our explanation for the aggregate volatility decline stresses improved supply-chain management, particularly in the durable goods sector, and, less important, a shift in production and employment from goods to services. We provide evidence that better inventory control made a substantial contribution to declines in firm-level and aggregate volatility. Consistent with this view, if we look past the turbulent 1970s and early 1980s, much of the moderation reflects a decline in high-frequency (short-term) fluctuations. While these developments represent efficiency gains, they do not imply (nor is there evidence for) a reduction in economic uncertainty faced by individuals and households. | | en_US |
| dc.language.iso | | eng | | en_US |
| dc.publisher | | Federal Reserve Bank of New York New York, NY | | en_US |
| dc.relation.ispartofseries | | Staff Report, Federal Reserve Bank of New York 334 | | en_US |
| dc.subject.jel | | E20 | | en_US |
| dc.subject.jel | | E32 | | en_US |
| dc.subject.ddc | | 330 | | en_US |
| dc.subject.keyword | | Great Moderation | | en_US |
| dc.subject.keyword | | inventories | | en_US |
| dc.subject.keyword | | monetary policy | | en_US |
| dc.subject.keyword | | volatility | | en_US |
| dc.subject.stw | | Wirtschaftswachstum | | en_US |
| dc.subject.stw | | Zins | | en_US |
| dc.subject.stw | | Inflationsrate | | en_US |
| dc.subject.stw | | Investition | | en_US |
| dc.subject.stw | | Volatilität | | en_US |
| dc.subject.stw | | Gleichgewichtiges Wachstum | | en_US |
| dc.subject.stw | | USA | | en_US |
| dc.title | | Interpreting the great moderation: Changes in the volatility of economic activity at the macro and micro levels | | en_US |
| dc.type | | Working Paper | | en_US |
| dc.identifier.ppn | | 587547421 | | en_US |
| dc.rights | | http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen | | en_US |
| Appears in Collections: | | Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
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