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dc.contributor.authorDavis, Steven J.en_US
dc.contributor.authorKahn, James A.en_US
dc.date.accessioned2010-04-28en_US
dc.date.accessioned2012-08-17T14:38:44Z-
dc.date.available2012-08-17T14:38:44Z-
dc.date.issued2008en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/60968-
dc.description.abstractWe review evidence on the Great Moderation together with evidence about volatility trends at the micro level to develop a potential explanation for the decline in aggregate volatility since the 1980s and its consequences. The key elements are declines in firm-level volatility and aggregate volatility-most dramatically in the durable goods sector-but with no decline in household consumption volatility and individual earnings uncertainty. Our explanation for the aggregate volatility decline stresses improved supply-chain management, particularly in the durable goods sector, and, less important, a shift in production and employment from goods to services. We provide evidence that better inventory control made a substantial contribution to declines in firm-level and aggregate volatility. Consistent with this view, if we look past the turbulent 1970s and early 1980s, much of the moderation reflects a decline in high-frequency (short-term) fluctuations. While these developments represent efficiency gains, they do not imply (nor is there evidence for) a reduction in economic uncertainty faced by individuals and households.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherFederal Reserve Bank of New York New York, NYen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesStaff Report, Federal Reserve Bank of New York 334en_US
dc.subject.jelE20en_US
dc.subject.jelE32en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordGreat Moderationen_US
dc.subject.keywordinventoriesen_US
dc.subject.keywordmonetary policyen_US
dc.subject.keywordvolatilityen_US
dc.subject.stwWirtschaftswachstumen_US
dc.subject.stwZinsen_US
dc.subject.stwInflationsrateen_US
dc.subject.stwInvestitionen_US
dc.subject.stwVolatilit├Ąten_US
dc.subject.stwGleichgewichtiges Wachstumen_US
dc.subject.stwUSAen_US
dc.titleInterpreting the great moderation: Changes in the volatility of economic activity at the macro and micro levelsen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn587547421en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen_US
Appears in Collections:Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

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