Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/60968 
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dc.contributor.authorDavis, Steven J.en
dc.contributor.authorKahn, James A.en
dc.date.accessioned2010-04-28-
dc.date.accessioned2012-08-17T14:38:44Z-
dc.date.available2012-08-17T14:38:44Z-
dc.date.issued2008-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/60968-
dc.description.abstractWe review evidence on the Great Moderation together with evidence about volatility trends at the micro level to develop a potential explanation for the decline in aggregate volatility since the 1980s and its consequences. The key elements are declines in firm-level volatility and aggregate volatility-most dramatically in the durable goods sector-but with no decline in household consumption volatility and individual earnings uncertainty. Our explanation for the aggregate volatility decline stresses improved supply-chain management, particularly in the durable goods sector, and, less important, a shift in production and employment from goods to services. We provide evidence that better inventory control made a substantial contribution to declines in firm-level and aggregate volatility. Consistent with this view, if we look past the turbulent 1970s and early 1980s, much of the moderation reflects a decline in high-frequency (short-term) fluctuations. While these developments represent efficiency gains, they do not imply (nor is there evidence for) a reduction in economic uncertainty faced by individuals and households.en
dc.language.isoengen
dc.publisher|aFederal Reserve Bank of New York |cNew York, NYen
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aStaff Report |x334en
dc.subject.jelE20en
dc.subject.jelE32en
dc.subject.ddc330en
dc.subject.keywordGreat Moderationen
dc.subject.keywordinventoriesen
dc.subject.keywordmonetary policyen
dc.subject.keywordvolatilityen
dc.subject.stwWirtschaftswachstumen
dc.subject.stwZinsen
dc.subject.stwInflationsrateen
dc.subject.stwInvestitionen
dc.subject.stwVolatilitäten
dc.subject.stwGleichgewichtiges Wachstumen
dc.subject.stwUSAen
dc.titleInterpreting the great moderation: Changes in the volatility of economic activity at the macro and micro levels-
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.identifier.ppn587547421en
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen

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