Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/60779 
Year of Publication: 
2008
Series/Report no.: 
Staff Report No. 326
Publisher: 
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York, NY
Abstract: 
We develop a dynamic factor model with time-varying factor loadings and stochastic volatility in both the latent factors and idiosyncratic components. We employ this new measurement tool to study the evolution of international business cycles in the post-Bretton Woods period, using a panel of output growth rates for nineteen countries. We find 1) statistical evidence of a decline in volatility for most countries, with the timing, magnitude, and source (international or domestic) of the decline differing across countries; 2) some evidence of a decline in business cycle synchronization for Group of Seven (G-7) countries, but otherwise no evidence of changes in synchronization for the sample countries, including European and euro-area countries; and 3) convergence in the volatility of business cycles across countries.
Subjects: 
Bayesian factor models
time-varying parameters
Great Moderation
international business cycles
JEL: 
C11
C32
F02
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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