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Title:Monetary tightening cycles and the predictability of economic activity PDF Logo
Authors:Adrian, Tobias
Estrella, Arturo
Issue Date:2009
Series/Report no.:Staff Report, Federal Reserve Bank of New York 397
Abstract:Eleven of fourteen monetary tightening cycles since 1955 were followed by increases in unemployment; three were not. The term spread at the end of these cycles discriminates almost perfectly between subsequent outcomes, but levels of nominal or real interest rates, as well as other interest rate spreads, generally do not.
Subjects:Monetary policy
interest rates
term structure
discriminant analysis
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JEL:E44
E52
G17
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

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