|
EconStor >
Federal Reserve Bank of New York >
Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York >
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/10419/60647
|
| | |
Full metadata record
| DC Field | | Value | | Language |
| dc.contributor.author | | Kahn, James A. | | en_US |
| dc.contributor.author | | Rich, Robert | | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | | 2012-08-17T14:27:04Z | | - |
| dc.date.available | | 2012-08-17T14:27:04Z | | - |
| dc.date.issued | | 2003 | | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri | | http://hdl.handle.net/10419/60647 | | - |
| dc.description.abstract | | The acceleration of productivity since 1995 has prompted a debate over whether the economy's underlying growth rate will remain high. In this paper, we propose a methodology for estimating trend growth that draws on growth theory to identify variables other than productivity - namely consumption and labor compensation - to help estimate trend productivity growth. We treat that trend as a common factor with two regimes high-growth and low-growth. Our analysis picks up striking evidence of a switch in the mid-1990s to a higher long-term growth regime, as well as a switch in the early 1970s in the other direction. In addition, we find that productivity data alone provide insufficient evidence of regime changes; corroborating evidence from other data is crucial in identifying changes in trend growth. We also argue that our methodology would be effective in detecting changes in trend in real time: In the case of the 1990s, the methodology would have detected the regime switch within two years of its actual occurrence according to subsequent data. | | en_US |
| dc.language.iso | | eng | | en_US |
| dc.publisher | | Federal Reserve Bank of New York New York, NY | | en_US |
| dc.relation.ispartofseries | | Staff Report, Federal Reserve Bank of New York 159 | | en_US |
| dc.subject.jel | | O4 | | en_US |
| dc.subject.jel | | O51 | | en_US |
| dc.subject.jel | | C32 | | en_US |
| dc.subject.ddc | | 330 | | en_US |
| dc.subject.stw | | Produktivität | | en_US |
| dc.subject.stw | | Neue Wachstumstheorie | | en_US |
| dc.subject.stw | | Gesamtwirtschaftlicher Konsum | | en_US |
| dc.subject.stw | | Lohn | | en_US |
| dc.subject.stw | | USA | | en_US |
| dc.title | | Tracking the new economy: Using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity | | en_US |
| dc.type | | Working Paper | | en_US |
| dc.identifier.ppn | | 363001921 | | en_US |
| dc.rights | | http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen | | en_US |
| Appears in Collections: | | Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
|
Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.
|