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dc.contributor.authorKahn, James A.en_US
dc.contributor.authorRich, Roberten_US
dc.date.accessioned2012-08-17T14:27:04Z-
dc.date.available2012-08-17T14:27:04Z-
dc.date.issued2003en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/60647-
dc.description.abstractThe acceleration of productivity since 1995 has prompted a debate over whether the economy's underlying growth rate will remain high. In this paper, we propose a methodology for estimating trend growth that draws on growth theory to identify variables other than productivity - namely consumption and labor compensation - to help estimate trend productivity growth. We treat that trend as a common factor with two regimes high-growth and low-growth. Our analysis picks up striking evidence of a switch in the mid-1990s to a higher long-term growth regime, as well as a switch in the early 1970s in the other direction. In addition, we find that productivity data alone provide insufficient evidence of regime changes; corroborating evidence from other data is crucial in identifying changes in trend growth. We also argue that our methodology would be effective in detecting changes in trend in real time: In the case of the 1990s, the methodology would have detected the regime switch within two years of its actual occurrence according to subsequent data.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherFederal Reserve Bank of New York New York, NYen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesStaff Report, Federal Reserve Bank of New York 159en_US
dc.subject.jelO4en_US
dc.subject.jelO51en_US
dc.subject.jelC32en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.stwProduktivitäten_US
dc.subject.stwNeue Wachstumstheorieen_US
dc.subject.stwGesamtwirtschaftlicher Konsumen_US
dc.subject.stwLohnen_US
dc.subject.stwUSAen_US
dc.titleTracking the new economy: Using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivityen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn363001921en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen_US
Appears in Collections:Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

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