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dc.contributor.authorChauvet, Marcelleen_US
dc.contributor.authorPotter, Simonen_US
dc.date.accessioned2012-08-17T14:24:59Z-
dc.date.available2012-08-17T14:24:59Z-
dc.date.issued2001en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/60541-
dc.description.abstractThe U.S. business cycle expansion that started in March 1991 is the longest on record. This paper uses statistical techniques to examine whether this expansion is a onetime unique event or whether its length is a result of a change in the stability of the U.S. economy. Bayesian methods are used to estimate a common factor model that allows for structural breaks in the dynamics of a wide range of macroeconomic variables. We find strong evidence that a reduction in volatility is common to the series examined. Further, the reduction in volatility implies that future expansions will be considerably longer than the historical average.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherFederal Reserve Bank of New York New York, NYen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesStaff Report, Federal Reserve Bank of New York 126en_US
dc.subject.jelE52en_US
dc.subject.jelC53en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordRecessionen_US
dc.subject.keywordCommon Factoren_US
dc.subject.keywordBusiness Cycleen_US
dc.subject.keywordBayesian Methodsen_US
dc.subject.stwKonjunkturen_US
dc.subject.stwZeitreihenanalyseen_US
dc.subject.stwBayes-Statistiken_US
dc.subject.stwUSAen_US
dc.titleRecent changes in the US business cycleen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn331763591en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen_US
Appears in Collections:Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

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