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dc.contributor.authorKempkes, Gerharden_US
dc.date.accessioned2012-07-25en_US
dc.date.accessioned2012-08-01T13:01:42Z-
dc.date.available2012-08-01T13:01:42Z-
dc.date.issued2012en_US
dc.identifier.isbn978-3-86558-822-7en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/60238-
dc.description.abstractMost EU member states will adopt fiscal rules that refer to cyclically-adjusted borrowing limits. Under the standard cyclical adjustment procedure, trend increases in public debt based on cyclical components are prevented if the real-time output gaps used to calculate cyclical components balance over time. We analyse real-time output gaps for EU-15 countries over the 1996-2011 period as estimated by the EU, the IMF and the OECD. Compared to each institution's final estimate, we find that real-time output gaps in our sample period are negatively biased. This bias is observed (i) irrespective of the source of the data, (ii) in all real-time vintages, (iii) basically across the entire cross-section of countries. The magnitude of the bias is considerable: on average, real-time cyclical components as a percentage of GDP are biased downwards by about 0.5 percentage point per year. Our results suggest that fiscal rules should incorporate ex-post checks of the unbiasedness of the cyclical components used within the rule. Potential biases would then decrease or increase future borrowing limits.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherDt. Bundesbank Frankfurt, M.en_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesDiscussion Paper, Deutsche Bundesbank 15/2012en_US
dc.subject.jelH61en_US
dc.subject.jelH68en_US
dc.subject.jelE32en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordpublic financeen_US
dc.subject.keywordfiscal rulesen_US
dc.subject.keywordcyclical adjustmenten_US
dc.subject.stwFinanzpolitiken_US
dc.subject.stwRegelgebundene Politiken_US
dc.subject.stwKonjunkturen_US
dc.subject.stwWirtschaftspotenzialen_US
dc.subject.stwEU-Staatenen_US
dc.titleCyclical adjustment in fiscal rules: Some evidence on real-time bias for EU-15 countriesen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn720098017en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen_US
dc.identifier.repecRePEc:zbw:bubdps:152012-
Appears in Collections:Discussion Papers, Deutsche Bundesbank

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