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Deutsche Bundesbank, Forschungszentrum, Frankfurt am Main >
Discussion Papers, Deutsche Bundesbank >
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/10419/60238
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Full metadata record
| DC Field | | Value | | Language |
| dc.contributor.author | | Kempkes, Gerhard | | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | | 2012-07-25 | | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | | 2012-08-01T13:01:42Z | | - |
| dc.date.available | | 2012-08-01T13:01:42Z | | - |
| dc.date.issued | | 2012 | | en_US |
| dc.identifier.isbn | | 978-3-86558-822-7 | | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri | | http://hdl.handle.net/10419/60238 | | - |
| dc.description.abstract | | Most EU member states will adopt fiscal rules that refer to cyclically-adjusted borrowing limits. Under the standard cyclical adjustment procedure, trend increases in public debt based on cyclical components are prevented if the real-time output gaps used to calculate cyclical components balance over time. We analyse real-time output gaps for EU-15 countries over the 1996-2011 period as estimated by the EU, the IMF and the OECD. Compared to each institution's final estimate, we find that real-time output gaps in our sample period are negatively biased. This bias is observed (i) irrespective of the source of the data, (ii) in all real-time vintages, (iii) basically across the entire cross-section of countries. The magnitude of the bias is considerable: on average, real-time cyclical components as a percentage of GDP are biased downwards by about 0.5 percentage point per year. Our results suggest that fiscal rules should incorporate ex-post checks of the unbiasedness of the cyclical components used within the rule. Potential biases would then decrease or increase future borrowing limits. | | en_US |
| dc.language.iso | | eng | | en_US |
| dc.publisher | | Dt. Bundesbank Frankfurt, M. | | en_US |
| dc.relation.ispartofseries | | Discussion Paper, Deutsche Bundesbank 15/2012 | | en_US |
| dc.subject.jel | | H61 | | en_US |
| dc.subject.jel | | H68 | | en_US |
| dc.subject.jel | | E32 | | en_US |
| dc.subject.ddc | | 330 | | en_US |
| dc.subject.keyword | | public finance | | en_US |
| dc.subject.keyword | | fiscal rules | | en_US |
| dc.subject.keyword | | cyclical adjustment | | en_US |
| dc.subject.stw | | Finanzpolitik | | en_US |
| dc.subject.stw | | Regelgebundene Politik | | en_US |
| dc.subject.stw | | Konjunktur | | en_US |
| dc.subject.stw | | Wirtschaftspotenzial | | en_US |
| dc.subject.stw | | EU-Staaten | | en_US |
| dc.title | | Cyclical adjustment in fiscal rules: Some evidence on real-time bias for EU-15 countries | | en_US |
| dc.type | | Working Paper | | en_US |
| dc.identifier.ppn | | 720098017 | | en_US |
| dc.rights | | http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen | | en_US |
| dc.identifier.repec | | RePEc:zbw:bubdps:152012 | | - |
| Appears in Collections: | | Discussion Papers, Deutsche Bundesbank
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