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Title:Structural estimation of the New-Keynesian model: A formal test of backward- and forward-looking behavior PDF Logo
Authors:Jang, Tae-Seok
Issue Date:2012
Series/Report no.:Economics Working Paper, Christian-Albrechts-Universität Kiel, Department of Economics 2012-07
Abstract:This paper attempts to uncover the empirical relationship between the price-setting/consumer behavior and the sources of persistence in inflation and output. First, a small-scale New-Keynesian model (NKM) is examined using the method of moment and maximum likelihood estimators with US data from 1960 to 2007. Then a formal test compares the fit of two competing specifications in the New-Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) and the IS equation; i.e. forward- or backward-looking behavior. Accordingly, the inclusion of a lagged term in the NKPC and the IS equation improves the fit of the model while offsetting the influence of inherited and extrinsic persistence; it is shown that intrinsic persistence plays a major role in approximating the inflation and output dynamics for the Great Inflation period. However, the null hypothesis cannot be rejected at the 5% level for the Great Moderation period; i.e. the purely forward-looking behavior of the NKM and its hybrid variant are equivalent. Monte Carlo experiments illustrate the validity of the chosen moment conditions and the finite sample properties of classical estimation methods. Finally, the performance of the formal test is analyzed using the Akaike's and the Bayesian information criterion.
Subjects:backward- and foward-looking behavior
formal test
information criterion
intrinsic persistence
maximum likelihood
method of moment
New-Keynesian
JEL:C12
C32
E12
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:Economics Working Papers, Department of Economics, CAU Kiel

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