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dc.contributor.authorMorana, Claudioen
dc.date.accessioned2012-05-21-
dc.date.accessioned2012-07-13T14:52:55Z-
dc.date.available2012-07-13T14:52:55Z-
dc.date.issued2012-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/59737-
dc.description.abstractIn this paper the oil price-macroeconomy relationship is investigated from a global perspective, by means of a large scale macro-financial-econometric model. In addition to real activity, fiscal and monetary policy responses and labor and financial markets are considered as well. We find that oil market shocks would have contributed to slowing down economic growth since the first Persian Gulf War episode. Among oil market shocks, supply side disturbances were the largest contributor to macro-financial fluctuations, accounting for up to 12% of real activity variance. The latter shocks would have exercised recessionary effects during the first and second Persian Gulf War and 2008 oil price episodes; preferences, speculative and volatility shocks would have also contributed to exacerbate the recessionary episodes. As long as oil supply will keep expanding at a lower pace than required by demand conditions, a recessionary bias, determined by higher and more uncertain real oil prices, may then be expected to persist also in the near future.en
dc.language.isoengen
dc.publisher|aFondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) |cMilanoen
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aNota di Lavoro |x28.2012en
dc.subject.jelC22en
dc.subject.jelE32en
dc.subject.jelG12en
dc.subject.ddc330en
dc.subject.keywordOil Priceen
dc.subject.keywordOil Price-Macroeconomy Relationshipen
dc.subject.keywordMacro-finance Interfaceen
dc.subject.keywordInternational Business Cycleen
dc.subject.keywordFactor Vector Autoregressive Modelsen
dc.titleThe oil price-macroeconomy relationship since the mid-1980s: A global perspective-
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.identifier.ppn715910787en
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen

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