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Title:Housing starts in Canada, Japan, and the United States: Do forecasters herd? PDF Logo
Authors:Pierdzioch, Christian
Rülke, Jan Christoph
Stadtmann, Georg
Issue Date:2012
Series/Report no.:Discussion Paper, European University Viadrina, Department of Business Administration and Economics 320
Abstract:Recent price trends in housing markets may reflect herding of market participants. A natural question is whether such herding, to the extent that it occurred, reflects herding in forecasts of professional forecasters. Using survey data for Canada, Japan, and the United States, we did not find evidence of forecaster herding. On the contrary, forecasters anti-herd and, thereby, tend to intentionally scatter their forecasts around the consensus forecast. The extent of anti-herding seems to vary over time. For Canada and the United States, we found that more pronounced anti-herding leads to lower forecast accuracy.
Subjects:Housing starts
Forecasting
Herding
JEL:E37
D84
C33
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:Diskussionspapiere, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät, Europa-Universität Viadrina

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