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Title:House price forecasts in times of crisis: Do forecasters herd? PDF Logo
Authors:Pierdzioch, Christian
Rülke, Jan Christoph
Stadtmann, Georg
Issue Date:2012
Series/Report no.:Discussion Paper, European University Viadrina, Department of Business Administration and Economics 318
Abstract:We used Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006 - 2010 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices, where anti-herding is less strong in the case of medium-term forecasts, especially in the case of housing starts.
Subjects:Forecasts of house prices and housing starts
Herding
JEL:E37
D84
C33
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:Diskussionspapiere, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät, Europa-Universität Viadrina

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