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dc.contributor.authorFoote, Christopher L.en_US
dc.contributor.authorLittle, Jane S.en_US
dc.date.accessioned2011-06-14en_US
dc.date.accessioned2012-06-20T16:09:52Z-
dc.date.available2012-06-20T16:09:52Z-
dc.date.issued2011en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/59232-
dc.description.abstractAnalysis of oil-price movements is once again an important feature of economic policy discussions. To provide some background for this analysis, this paper summarizes a conference on the oil market held at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston in June 2010. Four cross-cutting themes emerged from this symposium, which included scientific experts, market participants, business leaders, academics, and policymakers. First, the decline in real oil prices that followed the 1970s' oil shocks is unlikely to be repeated today, because there are fewer ways in which oil-importing countries can reduce oil demand or expand domestic supplies in response to higher prices. The second lesson of the conference, however, is that any prediction about oil markets is highly uncertain, a fact illustrated by the wide confidence intervals that result when futures-market data are used to quantify forecast uncertainty. Third, there is little consensus on whether new financial investment in commodity index funds has increased the volatility of oil prices. Finally, changes in oil prices still have large effects on the economy. Some research suggests that the rapid run-up in oil prices in 2007-08 may have significantly weakened the U.S. economy in the early stages of the Great Recession.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherFederal Reserve Bank of Boston Boston, Mass.en_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPublic policy Discussion Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston 11-3en_US
dc.subject.jelL71en_US
dc.subject.jelQ4en_US
dc.subject.jelQ5en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.stwÖlpreisen_US
dc.subject.stwVolatilitäten_US
dc.subject.stwMineralölmarkten_US
dc.subject.stwMakroökonomischer Einflussen_US
dc.subject.stwUSAen_US
dc.titleOil and the macroeconomy in a changing world: A conference summaryen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn662023439en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen_US
Appears in Collections:Public Policy Discussion Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

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