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Title:A chronology of international business cycles through non-parametric decoding PDF Logo
Authors:Fushing, Hsieh
Chen, Shu-Chun
Berge, Travis J.
Jorda, Oscar
Issue Date:2010
Series/Report no.:Working Papers, University of California, Department of Economics 10,20
Abstract:This paper introduces a new empirical strategy for the characterization of business cycles. It combines non-parametric decoding methods that classify a series into expansions and recessions but does not require specification of the underlying stochastic process generating the data. It then uses network analysis to combine the signals obtained from different economic indicators to generate a unique chronology. These methods generate a record of peak and trough dates comparable, and in one sense superior, to the NBER's own chronology. The methods are then applied to 22 OECD countries to obtain a global business cycle chronology.
Subjects:decoding
hierarchical factor segmentation
network analysis
business cycles
JEL:C14
C54
E32
F42
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:Working Papers, Department of Economics, UC Davis

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