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dc.contributor.authorSchmidt, Sandraen_US
dc.contributor.authorNautz, Dieteren_US
dc.date.accessioned2012-04-05T16:16:12Z-
dc.date.available2012-04-05T16:16:12Z-
dc.date.issued2010en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/56685-
dc.description.abstractThis paper investigates why financial market experts misperceive the interest rate policy of the European Central Bank (ECB). Assuming a Taylor-rule-type reaction function of the ECB, we use qualitative survey data on expectations about the future interest rate, inflation, and output to discover the sources of individual interest rate forecast errors. Based on a panel random coefficient model, we show that financial experts have systematically misperceived the ECB's interest rate rule. However, although experts tend to overestimate the impact of inflation on future interest rates, perceptions of monetary policy have become more accurate since clarification of the ECB's monetary policy strategy in May 2003. We find that this improved communication has reduced disagreement over the ECB's response to expected inflation during the financial crisis.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherSFB 649, Economic Risk Berlinen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesSFB 649 discussion paper 2010-036en_US
dc.subject.jelE47en_US
dc.subject.jelE52en_US
dc.subject.jelE58en_US
dc.subject.jelC23en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordcentral bank communicationen_US
dc.subject.keywordinterest rate forecastsen_US
dc.subject.keywordsurvey expectationsen_US
dc.subject.keywordpanel random coefficient modelen_US
dc.subject.stwZinspolitiken_US
dc.subject.stwInflationserwartungen_US
dc.subject.stwFinanzanalystenen_US
dc.subject.stwZentralbanken_US
dc.subject.stwStaatliche Informationen_US
dc.subject.stwEuropäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunionen_US
dc.subject.stwTaylor-Regelen_US
dc.subject.stwPanelen_US
dc.subject.stwSchätzungen_US
dc.subject.stwEurozoneen_US
dc.titleWhy do financial market experts misperceive future monetary policy decisions?en_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn637048768en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen_US
Appears in Collections:SFB 649 Discussion Papers, HU Berlin

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