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dc.contributor.authorLiu, Xiaoliangen_US
dc.contributor.authorXu, Weien_US
dc.contributor.authorOdening, Martinen_US
dc.date.accessioned2011-03-24en_US
dc.date.accessioned2012-04-05T16:12:55Z-
dc.date.available2012-04-05T16:12:55Z-
dc.date.issued2011en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/56651-
dc.description.abstractIn 2007 and 2008 world food markets observed a significant price boom. Crop failures simultaneously occurring in some of the world's major production regions have been quoted as one factor among others for the price boom. Against this background, we analyse the stochasticity of crop yields in major production areas. The analysis is exemplified for wheat, which is one of the most important crops worldwide. Particular attention is given to the stochastic dependence of yields in different regions. Thereby we address the question of whether local fluctuations of yields can be smoothed by international agricultural trade, i.e. by global diversification. The analysis is based on the copula approach, which requires less restrictive assumptions compared with linear correlations. The use of copulas allows for a more reliable estimation of extreme yield shortfalls, which are of particular interest in this application. Our calculations reveal that a production shortfall, such as in 2007, is not a once in a lifetime event. Instead, from a statistical point of view, similar production conditions will occur every 15 years.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherSFB 649, Economic Risk Berlinen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesSFB 649 discussion paper 2011-018en_US
dc.subject.jelC14en_US
dc.subject.jelQ19en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordcrop yield risken_US
dc.subject.keywordfully nested hierarchical Archimedean copulas (FNAC)en_US
dc.subject.keywordprice boomen_US
dc.subject.stwWeizenpreisen_US
dc.subject.stwRenditeen_US
dc.subject.stwKopula (Mathematik)en_US
dc.subject.stwAgraraußenhandelen_US
dc.subject.stwPortfolio-Managementen_US
dc.subject.stwTheorieen_US
dc.subject.stwWelten_US
dc.titleCan crop yield risk be globally diversified?en_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn654796998en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen_US
Appears in Collections:SFB 649 Discussion Papers, HU Berlin

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