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Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Philipps-Universität Marburg >
MAGKS Joint Discussion Paper Series in Economics, Universität Marburg >
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http://hdl.handle.net/10419/56536
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| Title: | | Do FOMC members herd?  |
| Authors: | | Rülke, Jan-Christoph Tillmann, Peter |
| Issue Date: | | 2010 |
| Series/Report no.: | | Joint discussion paper series in economics 32-2010 |
| Abstract: | | Twice a year FOMC members submit forecasts for growth, unemplyoment and in ation to be published in the Humphrey-Hawkins Report to Congress. In this paper we use individual FOMC forecasts to assess whether these forecasts exhibit herding behavior, a pattern often found in private sector forecasts. While growth and unemployment forecast do not show herding behavior, the in ation forecasts show strong evidence of anti-herding, i.e. FOMC members intentionally scatter their forecasts around the consensus. Interestingly, anti-herding is more important for nonvoting members than for voters. |
| Subjects: | | Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy forecasting herding |
| JEL: | | E43 E52 E27 |
| Document Type: | | Working Paper |
| Appears in Collections: | | MAGKS Joint Discussion Paper Series in Economics, Universität Marburg
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