Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/56536
Authors: 
Rülke, Jan-Christoph
Tillmann, Peter
Year of Publication: 
2010
Series/Report no.: 
Joint discussion paper series in economics 32-2010
Abstract: 
Twice a year FOMC members submit forecasts for growth, unemplyoment and in ation to be published in the Humphrey-Hawkins Report to Congress. In this paper we use individual FOMC forecasts to assess whether these forecasts exhibit herding behavior, a pattern often found in private sector forecasts. While growth and unemployment forecast do not show herding behavior, the in ation forecasts show strong evidence of anti-herding, i.e. FOMC members intentionally scatter their forecasts around the consensus. Interestingly, anti-herding is more important for nonvoting members than for voters.
Subjects: 
Federal Open Market Committee
monetary policy
forecasting
herding
JEL: 
E43
E52
E27
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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