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dc.contributor.authorTillmann, Peteren_US
dc.date.accessioned2010-05-11en_US
dc.date.accessioned2012-04-04T13:49:43Z-
dc.date.available2012-04-04T13:49:43Z-
dc.date.issued2010en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/56500-
dc.description.abstractThe Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve consists of voting- and non-voting members. Apart from deciding about interest rate policy, members individually formulate regular inflation forecasts. This paper uncovers systematic differences in individual inflation forecasts submitted by voting and non-voting members. Based on a data set with individual forecasts recently made available it is shown that non-voters systematically overpredict inflation relative to the consensus forecast if they favor tighter policy and underpredict inflation if the favor looser policy. These findings are consistent with non-voting member following strategic motives in forecasting, i.e. non-voting members use their forecast to influence policy deliberation.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherUniv., Dep. of Business Administration & Economics Marburgen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesJoint discussion paper series in economics 17-2010en_US
dc.subject.jelE43en_US
dc.subject.jelE52en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordinflation forecasten_US
dc.subject.keywordforecast errorsen_US
dc.subject.keywordmonetary policyen_US
dc.subject.keywordmonetary committeeen_US
dc.subject.keywordFederal Reserveen_US
dc.subject.stwGeldpolitiken_US
dc.subject.stwGruppenentscheidungen_US
dc.subject.stwInflationen_US
dc.subject.stwPrognoseen_US
dc.subject.stwManipulationen_US
dc.subject.stwUSAen_US
dc.titleStrategic forecasting on the FOMCen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn625900308en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen_US
Appears in Collections:MAGKS Joint Discussion Paper Series in Economics, Universität Marburg

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