EconStor >
Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW), Kiel >
Kieler Arbeitspapiere, IfW >

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:

http://hdl.handle.net/10419/55272
  
Title:The impact of seasonal and price adjustments on the predictability of German GDP revisions PDF Logo
Authors:Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
Neuwirth, Stefan
Issue Date:2012
Series/Report no.:Kiel Working Papers 1753
Abstract:Releases of the GDP are subject to revisions over time. This paper examines the predictability of German GDP revisions using forecast rationality tests. Previous studies of German GDP covering data until 1997 finds that revisions of real seasonally adjusted GDP are predictable. This paper uses a newly available real-time data to analyze the revisions of real seasonal adjusted GDP, of nominal unadjusted GDP, of the seasonal pattern, and of the GDP deflator for the period between 1992 and 2006. We find that the revisions of the nominal unadjusted GDP are unpredictable, but that the revisions of the price adjustments are predictable. Nevertheless, revisions of real seasonally adjusted GDP are hardly predictable and less well predictable compared to earlier studies. This lower predictability seems to be linked to the finding that revisions of seasonal adjustments are hardly predictable, too, and that their predictability decreased over time.
Subjects:real-time data
GDP revisions
noise
news
forecasting
seasonal adjustment
price adjustment
JEL:C82
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:Kieler Arbeitspapiere, IfW
Publikationen von Forscherinnen und Forschern des IfW

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat
684392135.pdf294.6 kBAdobe PDF
No. of Downloads: Counter Stats
Download bibliographical data as: BibTeX
Share on:http://hdl.handle.net/10419/55272

Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.