Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/55194
Authors: 
Qin, Duo
Year of Publication: 
2010
Series/Report no.: 
Working Paper // School of Economics and Finance, Queen Mary, University of London 669
Abstract: 
This study examines the evolution of econometric research in business cycle analysis during the 1960-90 period. It shows how the research was dominated by an assimilation of the tradition of NBER business cycle analysis by the Haavelmo-Cowles Commission approach, catalysed by time-series statistical methods. Methodological consequences of the assimilation are critically evaluated in light of the meagre achievement of the research in predicting the current global recession.
Subjects: 
business cycles
NBER
forecasting
JEL: 
B23
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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